Iowa Leading Indicators Index: January 2023 Report, March 17, 2023

(2023) Iowa Leading Indicators Index: January 2023 Report, March 17, 2023. Revenue, Department of

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Abstract

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) decreased to 108.4 (100=1999) in January 2023 (-0.4 percent) from a revised 108.8 in December 2022. The monthly diffusion index increased to 37.5 in January 2023 from 25.0 in December 2022. The Iowa nonfarm employment coincident index recorded a 0.20 percent increase in January, the twenty-second month of growth. Long term trends in the ILII suggests that nonfarm employment will decrease over the next three to six months. Updates to breakeven prices for grain commodities going back to June 2022 led to the downward revisions to the index. Grain breakeven prices are determined based upon the amount of overhead that is expended by farmers to produce their commodity. When grain break evens increase, actual realized profits are weakened.